A few weeks ago I was involved in an interesting conversation with some super smart people debating the future of Flash. Everyone seems to have a different perspective ranging from not worried, to OMG the writing’s on the wall can’t you see it!? I must admit I’m a little concerned. But mostly due to the hype of HTML5. I keep hearing that HTML5 is supposed to do a lot of things the Flash Player is already doing, and that it will minimize the need for a plug-in like Flash.
Plus that Goolge, Apple, and Mozilla are the major players in developing the HTML5 spec and so far Adobe has stayed out of it. None of those companies really have a stake in the Flash Player so you can’t help but wonder where Flash fits in with the future of web content.
This week is Adobe Max 2009 and there’s a lot of buzz and questions floating around as to how Adobe will respond to HTML5. Despite that fact HTML5 is not released or even completely speced out. I really hope Adobe makes a statement. Or a decloration of their future of the web and how Flash will be apart of it. But in all likely hood there will probably be a whole lot of no comments.
I don’t think it’s time to panic just yet, but it makes me really wonder about how the future will look. It wasn’t that long ago that shockwave was the way to deliver “Flash Like” content, and Director has since then gone the way of the Buffalo.
Adobe seems to be focused on other areas at the moment. In this article Kevin Lynch was interviewed about Adobe’s take on HTML5 and where they see Flash. It appears that Adobe see’s a great need to secure the mobile environment. They appear to feel secure about Flash’s role in web content delivery, for today and tomorrow. I dig that Adobe is aggressively persuing the mobile market, there are a lot of users there, but I just worry about where the Flash Player will fit in with tomorrow’s internet. I’m sure they have something up their sleeve and will reveal it when it’s appropriate, but it just makes me wonder about a fractured market. Flash’s strength is it’s ability to deliver cross platform content easily, and if Adobe secures mobile delivery will they have to sacrifice the desktop internet market?
I don’t know… It’s something to keep an eye on.
In the very near future Adobe has the Flash 10.1 release, rumored to take Flash Mobile content to that next level. What about the iPhone? Well Apple’s not on board with that. So we’ll have to wait. Apple is in no hurry on inviting Adobe to the party. I just wonder if Apple will shut Adobe out for good. Not just with the iPhone, but with HTML5.
It feels like the winds are changing and I’m really interested in what lies ahead. Adobe seems to think it’s a mobile world. Which it may very well be and for now we can still develop and enjoy Flash content. But I just hope Adobe hasen’t put all of their eggs in the Flash Mobile basket. The life cycle of a phone is much quicker than a computer so the climate of the mobile world could change at the drop of the hat leaving Adobe in the dust.
I still believe there is a huge need for our content to live and breathe with use. To be as dynamic in it’s creation as it is in its engaging. Right now Flash gives web developers the best tools to content design in temporal space and as long as that is the case Adobe has the upper hand. But be weary there are uncharted waters ahead. This might be the beginning of a climate change in the ever evolving internet landscape.
